Forecast of wind power operation and maintenance prospects: the size of the operation and maintenance market will exceed 20 billion yuan in 2023

It took China just 5 years to go through the wind power development road that Europe and the United States took 15 years to complete. The speed of China's wind power development is far beyond imagination. Since 2007, the global wind power industry has once become a fast-growing industry in the world, maintaining a high growth rate of nearly 30% for a long period of time. But over the past few years, the impact of the international financial crisis has begun to appear in the wind power industry.

In recent years, as the products of a large number of domestic enterprises have been put into the market, the price of the complete fan has dropped from 6,500 yuan/kW in 2008 to less than 3,700 yuan/kW today in the face of fierce competition, especially in the case of overcapacity. Global wind power practitioners are well aware that there is basically no room for profit in the whole machine industry. The wind vane of the wind power industry is changing, and the gradually hot wind power operation and maintenance service market is coming to the foreground.

According to the statistics of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the size of my country's wind power operation and maintenance market in 2016 was about 10.8 billion yuan. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the country still regards the increase of wind power installed capacity as an important development issue. It is not difficult to imagine that this will give my country The wind power operation and maintenance service provides a large space for development.

The installed capacity of wind power in my country has steadily increased, and the cumulative installed capacity in 2017 has reached 164 million kilowatts

According to statistics from the China Electricity Council, in 2017, my country added 15.03 million kilowatts of grid-connected wind power installed capacity, and the cumulative grid-connected installed capacity reached 164 million kilowatts, accounting for 9.2% of the total installed power generation capacity. The annual power generation of wind power is 305.7 billion kWh, accounting for 4.8% of the total power generation, and the proportion is 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 2016. In 2017, the national average utilization hours of wind power was 1,948 hours, an increase of 203 hours year-on-year. In 2017, the abandoned wind power was 41.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8 billion kWh, and the situation of wind curtailment and power curtailment has improved significantly.

Chart 1: 2012-2017 China Wind Power Installed Capacity Trend Chart (Unit: 100 million kWh, %)

Source: Compiled by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute

Before the wind power operation and maintenance took the stage, the market size of the operation and maintenance has exceeded 10 billion yuan

After more than ten years of rapid development, my country's wind power installed capacity has achieved "superior to the United States", ranking firmly in the global installed capacity. When the progress of "quality" is difficult to catch up with the leap of "quantity", my country's wind power installed capacity is the world's first, but instead, many problems in the industry are increasingly exposed. Wind farm owners are worried about the quality of domestically produced units, and even request an extension of the warranty period, which is a vivid manifestation of the industry's distrust. Usually, the warranty period of the fan is 2 to 5 years. During the warranty period, the fan manufacturer will be responsible for the whole process of maintenance services, and the maintenance cost of the new unit is also lower.

However, for fan equipment with a life span of up to 20 years, the longer it is used, the more likely it will cause problems, and the high-tech requirements for professional operation and maintenance companies are more and more intense. Since the development of wind power, more and more wind turbines have expired, and the follow-up maintenance business will release huge market space.

Statistics show that in 2012, the market size of my country's wind power operation and maintenance was about 4.5 billion yuan. In 2016, the market size of the industry was about 10.8 billion yuan, and it has maintained a growth rate of more than 10% in recent years. It is expected that the industry will maintain a rapid growth rate during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.

Chart 2: 2012-2016 China's wind power operation and maintenance market scale (unit: 100 million yuan, %)

Source: Compiled by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute

The wind power operation and maintenance market is surging, and wind power developers have obvious advantages

The main body of my country's wind power operation and maintenance market mainly has three parts, namely complete machine manufacturers, developers and third-party operation and maintenance companies. From the perspective of its advantages, developers are more competitive under the premise of mastering the advantages of resources and capital.

At present, many developers have established independent operation and maintenance companies, including Beijing Zhongneng Lianchuang Wind Power Technology Company of Longyuan Power Group and Datang New Energy Experimental Research Institute of Datang Group. Due to the cost of wind power operation and maintenance These central enterprise developers have relatively strong capital strength, and their own scale advantages help them to conduct centralized regional procurement of all equipment and spare parts to reduce operation and maintenance costs. The resources they master have become a strong support, and the entire industry chain formed from development to equipment manufacturing to parts and components will not give up this post-operation and maintenance market. This may be the reason why the current developers seize the operation and maintenance market.

Figure 3: Analysis of the competitive landscape of China's wind power operation and maintenance market

Source: Compiled by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute

China's wind power operation and maintenance market has broad prospects, and offshore wind power operation and maintenance will become the future growth of wind power operation and maintenance

From the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" to the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", China's offshore wind power has experienced a development transition from slow to accelerated development. With the increasing support of domestic offshore wind power policies, the continuous optimization of construction costs and the maturing of supporting industries, major wind power companies have entered the market one after another, and offshore wind power is ushering in a period of accelerated development. And in the next few years, this pace of construction will continue. With the stability of offshore wind resources and the characteristics of large power generation, offshore wind power is developing rapidly in recent years. Public information shows that offshore wind power is close to the power load center and has an advantageous geographical location, which can better meet market demand. The generation time of offshore wind power is long, and the equipment utilization rate is twice as high as that of onshore wind power, and there is a certain regularity, which is conducive to the deployment of peak and valley. In contrast, onshore wind power is difficult to adjust.

According to the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development", as of 2020, China's offshore wind power construction target scale is 10GW, and 5GW is guaranteed to be connected to the grid. High offshore electricity prices have become the driving force for wind power companies to develop offshore wind power. According to the “Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Adjusting the Benchmarking On-grid Tariff of Onshore Wind Power for Photovoltaic Power Generation” in early 2017, the on-grid tariff for non-bidding offshore wind power projects remains at the previous level. It can be seen that my country's offshore wind power operation and maintenance market has broad prospects in the future and will become one of the driving forces for the entire wind power operation and maintenance market. It is estimated that by 2023, the scale of my country's wind power operation and maintenance market will exceed 20 billion yuan.

Chart 4: 2011-2016 China Offshore Wind Power Installed Capacity Change Trend Chart (Unit: 10,000 kilowatts, %)

Source: Compiled by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute

Figure 5: 2018-2023 China wind power operation and maintenance market scale forecast (unit: 100 million yuan)

Source: Compiled by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute